August 2005 Poll: What Should Israel do next after Gaza?

August 2005 Poll: What Should Israel do next after Gaza?
Date: 15.09.05

 

 

Executive Summary

Below are the findings of a new poll conducted by Marketwatch, commissioned by us at H.L. Education for Peace—Geneva Initiative. The poll shows a majority of Israelis support entering permanent status negotiations with the Palestinians after the Gaza evacuation and a growing number believe there is a partner for peace in the Palestinian camp. They also show that a majority of Israelis are seeking greater American involvement in managing and/or ending the conflict. Support for the content of the Geneva Accord is an even split 40-42.

 

Note: Click the link at the top of this page to see an illustrated version of this poll (recommended).

Polling Information

  • The poll was conducted by phone on August 28th by Marketwatch.
  • The poll was conducted amongst a representative sample of 535 members of the Israeli Jewish population aged 18 and over (including an upgraded sample of Russian-speaking immigrants to create a representative sample proportionate to the entire population). Statistical error is +/- 4.2%
  • The poll did not include the Israeli Arab population, 20% of the total population, whose opinions are consistently very dovish, pro-peace (ie in previous polls, 80% of this constituency supported the Geneva Initiative). The exclusion of this community allowed a focus on the Jewish-Israeli population—which we will be specifically targeting in our coming campaign—but meant a drop of several percentage points in overall support for dovish positions.
  • The objective was to test public opinion following the completion of the evacuation of settlements in Gaza and North West Bank.
  • Note: Some of these findings are "tracking questions" comparing answers to previous polls.

  1. After Gaza, do you support or oppose Israel conducting permanent status negotiations with the Palestinians?

Support

66%

Oppose

28%

Undecided

6%

  1. Do you support or oppose Israel unilaterally evacuating the majority of the settlements in the West Bank?

Support

34%

Oppose

60%

Undecided

6%

  1. If the GOI (Government of Israel) decides to continue the disengagement plan in the West Bank, in other words unilateral withdrawal of most of the settlements, which of the following options would you prefer?

Gradual withdrawal over the course of many years

39%

One large withdrawal

37%

Neither option

23%

Undecided

2%

  1. In your opinion, is there or isn't there a partner for negotiations with Israel on the Palestinian side/ Palestinian leadership headed by Abu Mazen? (As compared to Nov. '04 without Abu Mazen).

Partner

No Partner

Undecided

Nov. 2004

25%

56%

19%

Aug. 2005

46%

48%

5%

Principles for Permanent Status:

Below are the principles for a permanent status agreement as they were read to the interviewees, as they appear in the Geneva Initiative.

Assuming that the Government of Israel and the Palestinians reach a permanent status agreement that included:

o An almost complete Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders, other than a limited number of settlement blocs, the Jewish Quarter and the Western Wall (in Jerusalem) and including land swaps in the Western Negev.

o Yielding of Israeli sovereignty on the Temple Mount

o Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty and Arab neighborhoods under Palestinian sovereignty

o A demilitarized Palestinian State, and detailed security arrangements regarding Israel’s defense needs.

o Limited entry of refugees to Israel according to Israel’s sole discretion.

o A mutual Israeli–Palestinian declaration of an end to the conflict and of any further claims

  1. Would you support or oppose such a permanent status agreement?

Support

40%

Oppose

42%

undecided

18%

  1. Have you heard of the Geneva Initiative model Israeli-Palestinian permanent status agreement?

Yes

91%

No

9%

  1. What would happen to the Palestinian terror threat under various scenarios?— comparison between two possible scenarios:

  1. If the government takes a lengthy time out before resuming any process with the Palestinians.
  2. If the government reaches a permanent status agreement with the Palestinians.

Increase if a

52%

Increase if b

28%

Decrease if a

4%

Decrease if b

30%

Will not change if a

39%

Will not change if b

36%

Undecided if a

4%

Undecided if b

6%

  1. Level of support for American intervention:

  1. Would you support or oppose increased American engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian process?

Support

54%

Oppose

39%

Undecided

6%

  1. Would you support or oppose the US president, George Bush, presenting a plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

Support

47%

Oppose

45%

Undecided

8%

10. Without reference to your preferences, do you think that in 5 years from now most of the settlements in the West Bank will:

Stay as they are today

38%

Be evacuated

50%

Don't know

12%