Geneva Initiative Opinion Poll – March 2016

An opinion poll conducted for the Geneva Initiative by the New Wave Research Institute in late-March, shows that 59% of the general public in Israel think that the ongoing stagnation in the peace process is bad for Israel – including 48% of Likud voters, 63% of Shas voters and 85% of Kulanu voters.
 
We also asked respondents about a possible peace agreement that includes a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with two capitals in Jerusalem, Palestinian recognition of Israel as the Jewish homeland, acceptable security arrangements and an end to all claims. 57% supported such a scenario, including 32% of Likud voters, 50% of Shas voters and 48% of Kulanu voters.
 
However, only 13% believe that a peace agreement with the Palestinians can be reached within a decade; 10% predict that Israel will unilaterally withdraw from the Occupied Territories; 8% say Israel will annex the Occupied Territories; and 59% believe the status quo will continue.
 
Interestingly, the younger respondents are, the less they support a peace agreement and the less they believe it is achievable. For example, only 38% of young participants (ages 18-34) said they would support the above-mentioned peace agreement, compared to 63% of those who are 55 or older.
 
Finally, Shas voters' support for a peace agreement continues to consistently grow. For example, 50% of them support a peace agreement with the Palestinians based on the above-mentioned parameters, compared to 0% among United Torah voters, the other Ultra-Orthodox party. Similarly, 63% say the ongoing stagnation in the peace process is bad for Israel, compared to 5% of United Torah voters.
 
The Geneva Initiative has been working for years with Shas leaders, rabbis, ministers, Members of Knesset and activists. It is with great satisfaction that we see these encouraging trends among Shas voters, which tend to be heavily influenced by their leaders. We are also working to increase our engagement with Coalition parties, particularly Kulanu. In early April, we hosted 40 Kulanu senior activists, including two Members of Knesset for a two-day seminar, which provided them with detailed knowledge of the conflict and a toolkit to promote the two-state solution. We are working with the party's leadership to increase this successful engagement.
 
Left: seminar for senior Shas activists, April 2015. Right: Seminar for senior Kulanu activists, April 2016.
 
 
The poll was conducted amongst a representative group of 600 Israelis, aged 18 and above. The margin of error is 4%. The poll was funded with the help of the EU Partnership for Peace Program.