Yehuda Ben Meir; Bitter Lemons, 13.06.06

bitterlemons: What do Israelis think about the notion of negotiating a peace treaty with the Palestinians under current conditions?
Ben Meir: Israeli public opinion has for many years strongly supported reaching a peace agreement. Even in the most difficult days of the second intifada, there always was an Israeli majority in favor of continuing negotiations with the Palestinians. On the other hand, as a result of the intifada and more recently Hamas' election victory, Israelis do not believe it is possible in the immediate future to reach an agreement with the Palestinians. While prior to the intifada a majority of Israelis believed it was possible, today only a third believe so. Parenthetically, it is interesting to note that in a question we introduced in 2005--do you believe an agreement can be reached if there is genuine democratization in the Palestinian Authority--the number rose to 50 percent.
bitterlemons: Do Israelis prefer a hudna, or ceasefire?
Ben Meir: I'm sure Israeli public opinion would massively support a truce or cessation of hostilities that is seen to be clearly in Israel's interest. But would Israelis be prepared to pay a substantial political price for a hudna that does not include clear Palestinian recognition of Israel and renunciation of terror? I doubt it, though I don't have specific data. The reason is that Israeli public opinion has serious doubts as to the intentions of the Palestinians, and specifically the [Hamas] leadership, and therefore would to a large degree see a hudna as a way for Palestinians to take a timeout in order to recoup and prepare for another round of violent terrorism.
bitterlemons: What does this tell us about Israeli confidence in the use of military force to stop terrorism?
Ben Meir: In 2004, 2005 and again this year we asked the public whether it believes terrorism can be eliminated by military action. The proportion who believed it could be eliminated went down from 27 to 20 percent during these past two years; those who believed military force could reduce the extent of terrorism but without eliminating it rose from 50 to 62 percent. A steady 10 or 11 percent say military action has no effect on the extent of terrorism, while seven percent (down from 12 percent in 2004), say military action increases terrorism. The Israeli public is realistic and doesn't believe in strictly military action to end the conflict.
bitterlemons: And the hudna as we've known it during the past year? How would you judge the public attitude toward this informal ceasefire?
Ben Meir: The Israeli public's desire not to end prospects for a peace agreement has survived the intifada, even if peace doesn't appear practical right now. Therefore, my opinion would be that an unconditional hudna kept by both sides with no political price, a policy of live and let live, would be supported by a vast majority of Israelis, with less than a third calling for continued military action until victory. If the Qassam rockets ceased being launched from Gaza and all was quiet, the majority of Israelis would, as they did right after disengagement, support a total ceasefire. A majority would even be prepared to differentiate between Gaza and the West Bank if terrorism stopped in Gaza but not in the West Bank.
bitterlemons: But the Qassams continue to be launched from Gaza, currently in large numbers. How does this affect Israeli attitudes?
Ben Meir: Due to the ongoing rocket attacks, the perception of a worsened security situation and the chaos in Gaza, Israelis are deeply disappointed with the results of the Gaza disengagement. This currently reduces support for [PM Ehud] Olmert's convergence or realignment plan to well below 50 percent. If the Israeli government doesn't find a quick and convincing solution for the Qassams, this could torpedo Olmert's disengagement project, since the public will fear that Qassams will be launched from the West Bank as well.- Published 12/6/2006 © bitterlemons.org
Yehuda Ben Meir is senior research associate at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University, where he heads the Public Opinion and National Security Project. He is a former member of Knesset and former deputy foreign minister.