|
A recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah shows an increase in the belief that a two-state solution is feasible after the Obama speech in Cairo, overall support for a two-state solution, preference for an comprehensive agreement as opposed to interim agreements, and support for mutual recognition.
Below are excerpts from a poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, between May 21-June 3, 2009. The poll was conducted before Obama’s speech in Cairo on June 4 (Survey 1). Following the speech, another survey (Survey 2) was conducted on June 7-8 which repeated some of the first survey questions on a representative sample of the Israeli public to assess the speech’s impact. The results show an increase in the belief that a two-state solution is feasible after the Obama speech in Cairo, overall support for a two-state solution, preference for an comprehensive agreement as opposed to interim agreements, and support for mutual recognition (Israel for Jewish and Palestine for Palestinians).
The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between May 21-23, 2009. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 606 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew ,or Russian between May 24 and June 3, 2009. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).
|
Can any of the sides to the conflict obtain unilaterally a solution in its favor by either military or diplomatic means?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1)Yes, Israel can
|
|
12.8%
|
12.4%
|
|
|
|
2) Yes, the Palestinians can
|
|
1.4%
|
1.5%
|
|
|
|
3) Neither side can and negotiations are required
|
|
56.5%
|
56.9%
|
|
|
|
4) The conflict cannot be resolved unilaterally nor by negotiations
|
|
25.3%
|
25.2%
|
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
4.1%
|
4.%
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.10%
|
100.00%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey 1: Can the Israeli-Palestinian conflict be settled through international mediation or it cannot?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) Definitely it can
|
|
9.7%
|
11.7%
|
|
|
|
2) Think it can
|
|
37.5%
|
37.3%
|
|
|
|
3) Think it cannot
|
|
21.9%
|
20.6%
|
|
|
|
4) Definitely it cannot
|
|
27.7%
|
27.2%
|
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
3.3%
|
3.1%
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.10%
|
99.90%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey 2: Can the Israeli-Palestinian conflict be settled through international mediation or it cannot?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) Definitely it can
|
|
11.8%
|
|
|
|
|
2) Think it can
|
|
40.2%
|
|
|
|
|
3) Think it cannot
|
|
17.8%
|
|
|
|
|
4) Definitely it cannot
|
|
23.9%
|
|
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
6.3%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.00%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey 1: And generally speaking is it possible or impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with the Palestinians (Isreal)?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) Definitely possible
|
|
4.1%
|
5.3%
|
1.5%
|
|
|
2) Think it is possible
|
|
28.4%
|
29.2%
|
28.6%
|
|
|
3) Think it is impossible
|
|
31.7%
|
30.4%
|
43.8%
|
|
|
4) definitely impossible
|
|
31.9%
|
31.5%
|
22.9%
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
3.9%
|
3.6%
|
3.2%
|
|
|
|
|
100.00%
|
100.00%
|
100.00%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey 2: And generally speaking is it possible or impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with the Palestinians?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) Definitely possible
|
|
8.7%
|
|
|
|
|
2) Think it is possible
|
|
32.1%
|
|
|
|
|
3) Think it is impossible
|
|
26.9%
|
|
|
|
|
4) definitely impossible
|
|
29.3%
|
|
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
3.0%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.00%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey 1: Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or non-existent?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) None existent
|
|
23.2%
|
24.3%
|
30.6%
|
|
|
2) Low
|
|
38.1%
|
37.0%
|
38.6%
|
|
|
3) Medium
|
|
25.9%
|
25.2%
|
23.8%
|
|
|
4) High
|
|
6.6%
|
7.1%
|
4.4%
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
6.2%
|
6.4%
|
2.6%
|
|
|
|
|
100.00%
|
100.00%
|
100.00%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey 2: Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or non-existent?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) None existent
|
|
22.0%
|
|
|
|
|
2) Low
|
|
32.3%
|
|
|
|
|
3) Medium
|
|
30.2%
|
|
|
|
|
4) High
|
|
12.0%
|
|
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
3.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.00%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There is talk about conducting Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on an interim
settlement whereby a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip while other issues, such as the refugees, would be postponed. Some (Other) people prefer negotiations over a comprehensive settlement that would lead to permanent peace and end of conflict with all issues, including refugees, resolved. Which of the two positions do you prefer: the interim settlement or the comprehensive one?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) Definitely the interim settlement
|
|
8.9%
|
10.4%
|
1.9%
|
|
|
2) Think the interim settlement
|
|
23.8%
|
22.1%
|
16.3%
|
|
|
3) Think the comprehensive one
|
|
18.8%
|
20.6%
|
53.5%
|
|
|
4) Definitely the comprehensive one
|
|
29.2%
|
29.9%
|
24.4%
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
19.3%
|
17.0%
|
3.9%
|
|
There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) Definitely agree
|
|
12.2%
|
18.3%
|
6.8%
|
|
|
2) Agree
|
|
34.6%
|
33.2%
|
42.7%
|
|
|
3) Disagree
|
|
20.7%
|
18.8%
|
34.2%
|
|
|
4) Definitely disagree
|
|
24.8%
|
22.4%
|
14.9%
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
7.7%
|
7.3%
|
1.4%
|
|
|
|
|
100.00%
|
100.00%
|
100.00%
|
|
|
|
Survey 1: Do you support or oppose the two states for two people solution to the conflict with the Palestinians?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) definitely support
|
|
26.5%
|
32.0%
|
|
|
|
2) support
|
|
29.4%
|
27.2%
|
|
|
|
3) oppose
|
|
12.8%
|
11.7%
|
|
|
|
4) definitely oppose
|
|
26.1%
|
24.3%
|
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
5.2%
|
4.8%
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.00%
|
100.00%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey 2: Do you support or oppose the two states for two people solution to the conflict with the Palestinians?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) definitely support
|
|
30.7%
|
|
|
|
|
2) support
|
|
32.5%
|
|
|
|
|
3) oppose
|
|
10.6%
|
|
|
|
|
4) definitely oppose
|
|
21.6%
|
|
|
|
|
5) DK/NA
|
|
4.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.90%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regardless of its difficulty, which of the two solutions do you support?
|
|
|
|
|
Israeli Jews
|
All Israelis
|
Palestinians
|
|
|
1) the two-state solution
|
|
|
|
60.8%
|
|
|
2) the one-state solution
|
|
|
|
23.3%
|
|
|
3) another solution (specify -------- )
|
|
|
|
9.3%
|
|
|
4) DK/NA
|
|
|
|
6.6%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.00%
|
|
For full text of this poll, click here.
|
