June 2008 Joint Poll: Assessing Impact of Obama's Speech on Peace Process

A recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah shows an increase in the belief that a two-state solution is feasible after the Obama speech in Cairo, overall support for a two-state solution, preference for an comprehensive agreement as opposed to interim agreements, and support for mutual recognition.

Below are excerpts from a poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, between May 21-June 3, 2009. The poll was conducted before Obama’s speech in Cairo on June 4 (Survey 1). Following the speech, another survey (Survey 2) was conducted on June 7-8 which repeated some of the first survey questions on a representative sample of the Israeli public to assess the speech’s impact. The results show an increase in the belief that a two-state solution is feasible after the Obama speech in Cairo, overall support for a two-state solution, preference for an comprehensive agreement as opposed to interim agreements, and support for mutual recognition (Israel for Jewish and Palestine for Palestinians).

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between May 21-23, 2009. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 606 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew ,or Russian between May 24 and June 3, 2009. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).
 

Can any of the sides to the conflict obtain unilaterally a solution in its favor by either military or diplomatic means?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1)Yes, Israel can
 
12.8%
12.4%
 
 
2) Yes, the Palestinians can
 
1.4%
1.5%
 
 
3) Neither side can and negotiations are required
 
56.5%
56.9%
 
 
4) The conflict cannot be resolved unilaterally nor by negotiations
 
25.3%
25.2%
 
 
5) DK/NA
 
4.1%
4.%
 
 
 
 
100.10%
100.00%
 
 
 
 
Survey 1: Can the Israeli-Palestinian conflict be settled through international mediation or it cannot?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) Definitely it can
 
9.7%
11.7%
 
 
2) Think it can
 
37.5%
37.3%
 
 
3) Think it cannot
 
21.9%
20.6%
 
 
4) Definitely it cannot
 
27.7%
27.2%
 
 
5) DK/NA
 
3.3%
3.1%
 
 
 
 
100.10%
99.90%
 
 
 
 
Survey 2: Can the Israeli-Palestinian conflict be settled through international mediation or it cannot?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) Definitely it can
 
11.8%
 
 
 
2) Think it can
 
40.2%
 
 
 
3) Think it cannot
 
17.8%
 
 
 
4) Definitely it cannot
 
23.9%
 
 
 
5) DK/NA
 
6.3%
 
 
 
 
 
100.00%
 
 
 
 
 
Survey 1: And generally speaking is it possible or impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with the Palestinians (Isreal)?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) Definitely possible
 
4.1%
5.3%
1.5%
 
2) Think it is possible
 
28.4%
29.2%
28.6%
 
3) Think it is impossible
 
31.7%
30.4%
43.8%
 
4) definitely impossible
 
31.9%
31.5%
22.9%
 
5) DK/NA
 
3.9%
3.6%
3.2%
 
 
 
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
 
 
 
Survey 2: And generally speaking is it possible or impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with the Palestinians?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) Definitely possible
 
8.7%
 
 
 
2) Think it is possible
 
32.1%
 
 
 
3) Think it is impossible
 
26.9%
 
 
 
4) definitely impossible
 
29.3%
 
 
 
5) DK/NA
 
3.0%
 
 
 
 
 
100.00%
 
 
 
 
Survey 1: Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or non-existent?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) None existent
 
23.2%
24.3%
30.6%
 
2) Low
 
38.1%
37.0%
38.6%
 
3) Medium
 
25.9%
25.2%
23.8%
 
4) High
 
6.6%
7.1%
4.4%
 
5) DK/NA
 
6.2%
6.4%
2.6%
 
 
 
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
 
 
 
Survey 2: Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or non-existent?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) None existent
 
22.0%
 
 
 
2) Low
 
32.3%
 
 
 
3) Medium
 
30.2%
 
 
 
4) High
 
12.0%
 
 
 
5) DK/NA
 
3.5%
 
 
 
 
 
100.00%
 
 
 
 
 
There is talk about conducting Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on an interim
settlement whereby a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip while other issues, such as the refugees, would be postponed. Some (Other) people prefer negotiations over a comprehensive settlement that would lead to permanent peace and end of conflict with all issues, including refugees, resolved. Which of the two positions do you prefer: the interim settlement or the comprehensive one?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) Definitely the interim settlement
 
8.9%
10.4%
1.9%
 
2) Think the interim settlement
 
23.8%
22.1%
16.3%
 
3) Think the comprehensive one
 
18.8%
20.6%
53.5%
 
4) Definitely the comprehensive one
 
29.2%
29.9%
24.4%
 
5) DK/NA
 
19.3%
17.0%
3.9%
There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) Definitely agree
 
12.2%
18.3%
6.8%
 
2) Agree
 
34.6%
33.2%
42.7%
 
3) Disagree
 
20.7%
18.8%
34.2%
 
4) Definitely disagree
 
24.8%
22.4%
14.9%
 
5) DK/NA
 
7.7%
7.3%
1.4%
 
 
 
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
 
 
Survey 1: Do you support or oppose the two states for two people solution to the conflict with the Palestinians?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) definitely support
 
26.5%
32.0%
 
 
2) support
 
29.4%
27.2%
 
 
3) oppose
 
12.8%
11.7%
 
 
4) definitely oppose
 
26.1%
24.3%
 
 
5) DK/NA
 
5.2%
4.8%
 
 
 
 
100.00%
100.00%
 
 
 
 
Survey 2: Do you support or oppose the two states for two people solution to the conflict with the Palestinians?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) definitely support
 
30.7%
 
 
 
2) support
 
32.5%
 
 
 
3) oppose
 
10.6%
 
 
 
4) definitely oppose
 
21.6%
 
 
 
5) DK/NA
 
4.5%
 
 
 
 
 
99.90%
 
 
 
 
Regardless of its difficulty, which of the two solutions do you support?
 
 
 
Israeli Jews
All Israelis
Palestinians
 
1) the two-state solution
 
 
 
60.8%
 
2) the one-state solution
 
 
 
23.3%
 
3) another solution (specify -------- )
 
 
 
9.3%
 
4) DK/NA
 
 
 
6.6%
 
 
 
 
 
100.00%
 

For full text of this poll, click here.