October 2010: Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll

October 2010: Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll

The poll was jointly conducted by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah.

Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, October 2010

PALESTINIANS BELIEVE THEY ARE OF GREATER NEED OF SUCCESS IN THE NEGOTIATIONS, ISRAELIS THINK BOTH SIDES NEED IT EQUALLY, BUT BOTH PUBLICS ARE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THEIR SUCCESS


64% of the Palestinians believe that they and not Israel are of greater need of success in the direct negotiations; 51% among Israelis believe that both sides are of equal need of success. Nevertheless both publics are skeptical about the success of the talks, Israelis overwhelmingly support their continuation while Palestinians oppose it.

 

If the peace talks fail, the option endorsed by most Palestinians is to ask the UN Security Council to recognize a Palestinian State. The second most popular option is to declare unilaterally the establishment of a Palestinian state. The options to resort to resistance are less popular. However Israelis misperceive these preferences, and fear that Palestinians will resume the Intifada.

 

MAIN FINDINGS

Palestinian Israeli talks

  • Now after more than a month since the beginning of the direct negotiations 78% of the Israelis support their continuation while only 30% among Palestinians support it.
  • Nevertheless 64% of the Palestinians believe that they and not Israel are of greater need of success in the direct negotiations while 51% among Israelis believe that both sides are of equal need of success.
  • Neither Palestinians nor Israelis think that the negotiations will succeed and yield an agreement. Only 6% of the Palestinians and 5% of the Israelis think that there are high or very high chances for that.
  • If the peace talks fail, the option endorsed by most Palestinians is to ask the UN Security Council to recognize a Palestinian State (69%). The next most popular option (54% support) is to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state. 51% support the option to start a non-violent resistance. The other options asked about received only minority support: 41% support the resumption of the armed Intifada (57% oppose it); 40% support the dissolution of the PA if the talks fail (57% oppose it), and 27% support abandoning the two-state solution and demanding instead a one-state solution (71% oppose it).
  • We also asked Israelis’ assessment as to Palestinian preferred response to a failure of the talks. Israelis perceive quite accurately Palestinians’ preferences to act in the international arena, but they misperceive their preferences on resistance. While Palestinians prefer popular non-violent resistance over armed resistance (51% vs. 41%), 63% of the Israelis fear the Palestinians will resume the intifada and only 42% estimate that they will start a non-violent resistance.

Conflict management and threat perceptions

  • In our poll we also examine periodically Israelis’ and Palestinians’ readiness for a mutual recognition of identity as part of a permanent status agreement and after all issues in the conflict are resolved and a Palestinian State is established. Our current poll shows that 64% of the Israelis support and 24% oppose mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people. Among Palestinians, 49% support and 48% oppose this step. In June 2010, 60% of the Israelis supported and 32% opposed this mutual recognition of identity and among the Palestinians support stood at 58% and opposition at 39%.

 

For full poll results, click here.