By Ze'ev Sternhell; Ha'aretz, 30.06.06

The violent invasion of Gaza, now sowing destruction on an unimaginable scale, only sharpens the essence of the two great dangers now lurking in ambush of Israel. One is the possibility that the Olmert government is just a Likud II government, addicted to the rituals of wielding power, and as indifferent, deaf and blind as its predecessors. Such a government not only will refuse to hear the pleas of Mahmoud Abbas, but will ignore the so-called prisoners' document that has been accepted by Hamas. Already now it appears to be the kind of government that is both cruel and hapless.

The second danger derives from the same paralysis of thought: the withdrawal to the route of the separation fence as the magic formula to cure all the country's ills. Ariel Sharon wanted to erase the Green Line and unilaterally determine a new border. He presumably knew that it would be a border of war. He also knew that the fence would not protect the Jewish population, but rather would make it more exposed and vulnerable. Sharon was not interested in the peace of the population, but in taking over as large as possible a part of the West Bank.

Like Menachem Begin 30 years ago, the Likud-Kadima people want to give up part of the territory to make it easier to annex the rest. That's why there was no real debate in the government, the Knesset or the public about the significance of the unilateral withdrawal. Sharon did not want such a discussion, neither privately nor publicly, because he knew what the result would be. He understood that if all the aspects of his plan were examined, the conclusion would be that the "disengagement" was itself useless, unless it was the first stage of a larger peace plan. But since peace is never achieved except through an agreement, Sharon did not want any contacts with the Palestinians lest he be dragged into a compromise with them, heaven forbid. In that sense, the rise of Hamas did not change a thing, and now it is nothing but a fig leaf. It's only a shame that the Labor Party fell for the trap.
Now there is no doubt that Olmert - trying to achieve the false image of a "strong man" with all the Likud people around him - will stick to the "convergence" like a drowning man clutching at straws. It is, after all, the only justification for the very existence of Kadima. Instead of determining that the end of the war will be a national goal and enlisting all our material and intellectual means to that cause, along with all the goodwill that exists in the international community, the focus will be on the effort to unilaterally define the border. Not only will that border not contribute to stability in the region, it will become a permanent focal point for flare-ups in the future. The rules of the game that hold in the south today will be copied to the eastern arena: In the wake of the shooting at residents on the front line, which is an act of terror - as is any attack on any civilian population anywhere - and in the wake of every attack on an IDF unit, there will be a retaliatory act of punishment and retribution that will necessarily take the form of counterterrorism. Naturally, as we have learned from experience, every new operation will be tougher than the previous one, but despite Israel's absolute military superiority, no decisive victory will be achieved unless it is decided to expel or destroy the Palestinian population.

As a result of the situation that has already been created, the border between what is permissible and what is forbidden in civilized society, even when that society is compelled to deal with terror, will be completely erased. Already now, in Gaza, the line separating legitimate combat from actions meant to break the civilian population, is disappearing, as is the distinction between fighting that serves a real national interest and the desire to compensate the battered ego of the army, and the distinction between the supreme responsibility for the life of every soldier and his personal liberty, and the urge to seek retribution and vengeance. But the motive for vengeance has never been a replacement for policy. Judging by what is happening right now, our government is not capable of much more.