|
By Gidi Greenstein, Ynet, 08.10.07
This week, another Israeli national team is walking onto a playing field. However this time it is in the political arena. Will its fate will be similar to our national soccer, basketball or tennis teams?
The common denominator among these teams is that they recently played against better and stronger opposition. The soccer team led by Benayoun suffered a humiliating defeat by England. The basketball team under the leadership of Tapiro made it to the advanced stages of the European Championship. Meanwhile, in tennis, Dudi Sela beat two Chilean players ranked over 100 places above him to bring Israel into the World Group of the Davis Cup.
Now is the time for the ‘game’ of Israeli-Palestinian politics. The set goal: to reach a short, substantive, agreed upon document within six weeks. A compromise in comparison to the goals set at the start of the process, it is nonetheless doubtful whether even this goal is attainable. The Israeli team needs to maneuver between a diluted general agreement that maintains coalition stability, on the one hand, and a substantive agreement dealing with the core issues and answering minimum Palestinian demands, on the other.
Yet, Israel is choosing to take to the playing field from an inferior position. The Palestinian team is their best in the form of experienced politicians led by Abu Ala, Saeb Erekat and Yasser Abed-Rabbo. On our side, the team comprises senior officials including Yoram Turbowitz, the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, Aaron Abramovich, Director General of the Foreign Ministry, Shalom Turgeman, the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor and General (Res.) Amos Gilad, head of the political-military bureau at the Defense Ministry.
The gap between the sides is wide. Abu Ala has more experience in political negotiations on the outstanding issues between the sides than all the Israeli team put together. So does Erekat. The two of them have negotiated with Israel since 1991. Even Abed-Rabbo has experienced negotiations over Permanent Status in 1999-2001 and as the leader of the Palestinian side for the Geneva Initiative. On the other hand, for some on the Israeli team, this is a first taste of comprehensive political negotiations with the Palestinians.
Moreover, while the Palestinians have an experienced and organized Negotiation Support Unity, Israel suffers from an organizational void. To date, there has been no serious attempt to tap into the knowledge and experience within the government. Suspicion prevails among the various government agencies , with many wary of a secret back channel that would deprive them of their moment of fame.
In sports, victory and defeat are clear. Yet, every play is recorded and players are ranked not just on the basis of the how much they scored, but also based on their overall contribution to the success of the team.
However, should we measure performance of a negotiating team? Obtaining an agreement isn’t the be all and end all. Moreover, a clear 'victory' by one side is likely to cause the failure of the entire process. Nevertheless, the negotiation team and its chief negotiator will be assessed on its ability to serve the political directive of the Prime Minister. It needs to warn the PM about potential surprises, as well as exhaust its opponent's weak spots. Each step must be calculated with an awareness that the battle over responsibility for failure will be no less intense.
It is extremely difficult to achieve these things when faced with more experienced interlocutors who have advantages in terms of knowledge, historical memory and support systems.
What explains Israel's conduct? One possibility is that there is no real intention to reach an agreement or because the PM intends to form a secret back channel. A second possibility is that the PM believes that formulating a short general declaration does not require a more experienced team. This is a mistake. There is no direct connection between the length of the document and its historical importance. Moreover, a 'general' declaration is insufficient for the Palestinian side who is likely to widen the agenda of negotiations.
In any event, as of this week, Turbowitz is the captain of the Israeli team. It's up to him to lead Israel to an agreed document with the Palestinians or to ensure that failure will not undermine Israel's international position or interests. All of this in six weeks. The decisions he makes will significantly determine the outcome. Let's hope he turns out like Dudi Sela!
|